Globally equity markets (including India) have taken a beating, correcting significantly in a relatively short span of time. A million-dollar question right now, Is it a buying opportunity or an exit indicator to enter later? The novel corona-virus has spread from a few hundred cases being reported pre-dominantly from the Hubei province of China, to all over the world taking the total tally of affected people globally to more than 1,20,000 and the death toll also rising at an alarming rate. It is definitely going to have an impact on global growth. But is it discounted?
Historically, buying at sharp dips has been rewarding as markets recover after initial reaction but timing may be unknown. Do you think this time it’s different?
Share your thoughts with fellow 120000 traders and investors on iCommunity.
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Community User Till April 20 end there is going to be unparalleled uncertainty, not even the 2008 shake up had any such steep falls like today 12-03-2020. The same is an opportunity for long term investors.
For traders it is an opportunity that presents itself.
Community User Buying opportunity
Community User Till one book their losses the losses are just notional. Look at all these panic as a temporary aberration and opportunities to accumulate slowly into Large Cap market leaders for long term.
Community User If only we knew the rock bottom :)
Community User Nobody can predict for sure, but the way our market has recovered after the initial bout of panic sell is quite reassuring. Another positive factor would be that summer is round the corner and most likely the virus will die of its own when temperature rises above 30. So have a long term view and accumulate Large Cap quality stocks which are now available at a much discounted price after every sell out or dips.
Community User In India the temperature is supposed to go up now to kill the virus, but it s delayed in delhi and north India. My hopes are that the virus will die down by April 3rd week. And market will go up unless something more damaging doesn t come up from Govt.
Community User Human body temperature is 37 degrees it cannot enter the body!
Community User Market may be falling next week. Best to buy blue chips.
Community User Advice is good but note that situation may worsen with corona threat persisting and in th
chly valued will also take beating
Community User I mean large caps are also not safe heaven. However quality mid caps with long track record and at attractive pe multiple can be better choice.
Community User Great time to invest for long term. At any level nifty below 10000 mark
Community User it s buying opportunity
Community User keep buying in equity
Community User Don t invest all your money, identify good and reliable stocks and accumulate on each dip
Community User It is buying opportunity.Feel sorry that we are fishing in troubled waters but one should go ahead and take risk.
Community User Whether is Corona or not, any volatile market is not worth entering or exiting for long term players. We may look at bluehips which are at bottom to enter, nothing more....
Community User Monday market will be up by 1600 points nifty 700
Bank nifty 1200 up ✌️👍
Community User The Market is oversold and Global Markets may go up for a short time with the news announcements like reducing interest rates, introducing more liquidity, dialogue between Saudi and Russia etc., . But the macro challenges are not going to be resolved in short span of time. Some global markets are almost entered in to Recession phase. Every recovery is an opportunity for shorting for atleast 3 to 6 months. Some sectors are very badly hit and have reached debt trap and recovery is not possible in a reasonable time. The coming quarterly reports and the guidance of the companies are not going to impress the market. May be staggered buying for a very long term is the only option.
Community User IAM not selling my mutual fund till 2050 what ever happen ready to accept
Community User i feel this opportunity in one in life time,if i equate it with histery it was 1930 palegue falloed by great recession,and again in 1942 stag inflation.
if it goes worst then 1930 will arrive those invested in 1930 reaped gold in 1942.it is play of timing only so buy.
Community User I think it is better to buy mutual funds rather than direct shares to avoid major risk.Also buy good Equity MF in step by step at every deep.
Community User Markets are falling globally and entered bear phase, there might be some rise in indices but it will be in downward cycle for at least nest six months to one before it bottoms out. Hence any rise may concidered to exit the market and keep the cash to invest may be agt six months or a year.
Community User one year will be the time it will take to really feel the impact of covid 19 . so be careful and avoid big buy . may by sip or SEP would be a good option
Community User Buy in sips and do not forget put the money in those companies who are pillars like HDFC group,
, LARSEN etc, these companies will bear the storm and give excellent returns over next 10 years
Community User I have been in this markets since 2003, i have seen the fall of 2004 elections falls when govt was undecided and 2009 elections circuit rally. We should start accumulating good quality stocks because we can t predict the bottom. It is good time to put your cash into equity , Mutual fund etc.
Community User Younger the investor, more the risk taking ability.
Community User staggered buying is the ideal option for investors, for traders intermediate TOP is placed
Community User Its an exit opportunity...As nobody faced this kind of pandemics in our lifetime...rate cut will also not help as there is no confidence for industry at this point to take risk...Already we are seeing almost all sectors are getting hammered due to the cascading effects of pandemic...And importantly nobody knows how long it will take the spread to continue and start recovering from lossess...
Community User I have been into stock markets for more than 18 years now. I started investing through MF followed by shares. While 2008 slowdown, i contd. with my SIPs which paid me very healthy returns later. Corona Virus is spreading, however, surely we require a medicine/therapy for the same, thus case here is bit different. I am collecting essential commodity shares e.g. HUL, Marico, Pharmaceuticals (Astraz, Pfizer, GSK Pharm) on every dip of 4% on Nifty. I have no shares of cos. with any kind of debt/ shares pledged, thus wish to gain in long run.
Community User Warren Buffett great saying , it is wise to be “Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Community User Wait and watch should be the strategy in these days. During such volatile market charts , EMAs will not help.
Community User With one year horizon, quality buying at this level will be rewarding
Community User I am very new to share market & I dont my view counts or not. But I am thinking buy shares of good companies as much as possible and I am doing it from last several days. Not much but investing at least 30k on days when market falls 4%.
Community User you can go ahead and buy, if you have long term patience.
Community User I m also new but need to know how to do balanced investment for long term.
FYI..I have already significant shares running very low which I bought back in mid 2018
Community User No body can predict a bottom , every investor should buy at further dips to even out , this mkt will again rise to same levels in 4-12 months
Community User If Long Term Should be Buy and for Short Term wait for 6 Trading Sessions
Community User I am pretty much new into share markets. But As i have observed some trends before. Its recommended to buy some shares of good company like TCS, Reliance etc
Community User Just put money EIP in every decline its become a good after 5ys
Community User Is it right to sell existing stocks and mutual funds? and invest after 15 to 30 days with the same amount to see some profit for long term.
Community User 100 month moving average is @ 8400..In 2008 fall also market got stabilised @ 100 month moving average..So may be be half buying can be done at 8400-8500 Nifty..After this 7000 iS next buying zone
Community User I believe this is good time for fresher and new investors to start buying share of big companies on a regular basis irrespective of the prices.
Community User IF you are already holding shares-this is not a time to exit because over 80% of downside risk is already behind you.At best the forward risk is 20%.
Where as if you are wishing to invest for a horizon of 5 years ++,there cannot be a better time-blue chips will surely more than double in 5 years-there is no doubt in that.You should have the courage to withstand short term risk of a a max of 20%
Community User Buy in a staggered manner-dont look at nifty-look at individual prices eg
at 400-buy 20% ,at 375-30%,at 350,30% and the rest 20% can be on either further downside or buy on the way up.
Community User Charts dont matter in this situation-overall sentiment is bad so every scrip is at the mercy of Corona
Community User yes, fundamental correction will happen
Community User As per my point of view, economy is strong, but fear is there, so keep investing for longer term and enjoy the profit
Community User Investing Is a personal thing. Don t look at what others are doing? They take decision based on their knowledge, strength and courage.
Find out the money which you don t need for next 5-10 years. (Let it be 10 rs invest that money for longer term and on right price) slice that in to 10 piece s and on every dip invest it in market......
You never know if this the opportunity for you... There and many Guru s of market shared their view and experiences...
Some of them as below-----
(Take your own decisions with consulting your financial advisor)
1.WARREN BUFFETT: DON T BE A FOLLOWER--
I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
2. PETER LYNCH: DO YOUR HOMEWORK.--
If you don t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
3. ROBERT G. ALLEN: THRIVING INVESTORS DON T PLAY IT SAFE.-- How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.
4. SIR JOHN TEMPLETON: LOOK BACK TO GO FORWARD.-- The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it s different.
5. JOHN NEFF: LOOK FOR THE HIDDEN GEMS.-- It s not always easy to do what s not popular, but that s where you make your money. Buy stocks that look bad to less careful investors and hang on until their real value is recognized.
6. PHILLIP FISHER: DON T CONFUSE PRICE WITH VALUE.-- The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
7.JIM CRAMER: TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS.-- Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.
Community User It s almost impossible to time the market, every time...
What matters is timing in the market
Every investment need time to grow...
Community User I guess it would be volatile for next 2 to 3 weeks before you can see any direction in the market.
Community User Discipline,patience and not timing the market is some basic rules of investing.
Community User Well. The market is now 31000 from 42000. I guess it may go down further but not much. And ULTIMATELY Indian Economy in long term is bound to go UP and not DOWN. As such I believe this is a buying opportunity lasting in my opinion about a month. Off course my view is only LONG TERM.
Community User I think we should not try to catch falling knife and should wait for few weeks and then decide if we should buy or not.. current Corona situation is just a beginning. and as per my understanding we are not able to understand the actual problem, Corona can be cured that is not an issue. main issue is that it spreads like fire in jungle and we in india dont have enough infra to support that situation.
Community User so market will fall like anything once there would be long queues in hospitals and hospital/doctors will take their own decision to whom to save and to whom they can leave to die. Sad but it seems like near future :(
Community User Till this month end there will be huge volatile.
Its a good time to buy equity shares with good fundamentals.
Buy more shares on Dips.
Community User BUYING OPPORTUNITY
Community User Gold rush time for an investor with a time horizon greater than 2 years. Divide your investment into 4 or 5 parts--> so if you want to invest 10lacs, then divide it into 2lacs tranches. Given the uncertain situation, there will be multiple buying opportunites. Keep investing in stocks that you understand well. (not speculative stocks like yes bank etc) Build a portfolio of 10-15 stocks. Focus investment on these.
For those who are already invested with large capitals, you should exit specific stocks on rebounds and re-invest on corrections. Market will indicate comfort once the uncertainties cool down, by that time you should have churned your portfolio.
For small investors, best is to continue to do SIP monthly in index, large-caps and diversified mutual funds. max 3 or 4 funds. Good time for people who can surf the rough seas.
If you feel too overwhelmed, then shut down the news- keep portfolio as it is and look at it after 2 years. You will be quite ok. All the best friends.
Community User On the impact of this uncertainty on economy- it is going to be a real impact-- world GDP will be affected maybe by 1%--- economists can predict. So the problems for global economy is real.
India may net net profit during this mayhem- 1. Downside is limited - because it is not so integrated with the world (except stock market - unfortunately)2. upside - since we have strong companies which are globally competitive, they will mostly thrive. (not universally true, but largely true)
2020 will be poor for the industries, so market bounce-back will probably happen only in 2021/22.
Community User One should start buying quality Blue chips now, in a staggered manner. In case of a V shaped recovery, many might miss the bus.
Community User It is a good opportunity to invest in NIFTY. NIFTY will not go down as other shares may but the rebound will be much more once you hear a good news
Community User Yes... it is time to buy and wait for long term to see the profit
Community User I think NSE will touch 8000 tomorrow or next few days before 23.
Community User Covid is a temporary fear. If your are looking for building long-term portfolio, then consider this as very good opportunity. Market always works with greed & fear. Select which side you want to be.
Community User Every fall is an opportunity to rise. I think, this fall has not come due to faulty functioning of our manufacturing or trading companies. This fall is due to a pandemic CORONA . It means our fundamentals are still sound and one may go for buying scrips after due dilligence
Community User Corona and Yes Bank failure have affected mutual fund returns also a lot
Community User I would guess stay invested and if you have reserve fund, invest more. I don t think one can time the market. And STOP looking at your paper value by quickly browsing the portfolio.
Community User Better sense would be to let it stabilized and monitor spread of COVID-19 in India from week to week. If the numbers are growing exponentially (assuming governments report correct number), we r in trouble as everyone.
Community User I believe there is no point in timing the market. Patience should be the call. It is not a one off phenomena, but a combination of factors and even if one gets resolved others may not. Mostly Yes Bank fiasco will get settled, but Corona effect on the economy and by implication the market is going to trouble the sentiment for a longer time, during which one does not know what may happen.
Community User Time is not settled yet , universally people remain in door to prevent measures this will effect the market for some time say 3 more months right now either exit for short period and enter later on or keep adding as they come down.
Community User There were many virus attacks in the past such as Ebola and H1N1 which didn’t create as much panic as Covid -19 due to less social media coverage. These did not impact china much which is a major supplier for many businesses. I believe market has panicked and corrected a great deal and it can fall further with the bottom unknown. Purchase in dips and once market starts to grow watch the show. But i advice to hold a bit of cash to enter at the lowest
Community User Opportunities are not coming often like corona. every 7/10 years you get it grab it
Community User Well it is just a panic situation. it s a right oppertunity to buy in deeps. Take advanrages of this bear market & gain profits in next 3 to 6 months
Community User Just wait for two weeks, if corona cases does not rise significantly in India
market will go up all the way.
Community User Deploy your excess money slowly (5 to 10% at a time) over a period of 2 months and accumulate good stocks. This could be rewarding over long period.
Community User i am confused. Because such a situation I have never faced before in the last 20 years including 2008. If you buy now, what if the script goes down further. Or should I sell every thing to cut further losses and wait for greener pastures ahead after 3-6 months?
Community User India enters next stage of Corona and has about 30 days window . Though Govt is doing the best and fight against virus is better than even some of the world advanced countries. Still, there is huge risk looking to area, topography, population, demography, literacy, people exposure to fight epidamics. Market is bound to see deep dip. Better stay away.
Community User Accumulating good stocks on dips could be a good strategy. Now that reports are coming about ways to treat the infection successfully, turnaround may not be far. Govt also looks serious about containing the outbreak. However, our public health infrastructure to deal with such epidemics is extremely in-adequate. We may not realize, it a world war of a different kind.
Community User Nobody on this universe can predict for the natural calamities hence to pray god for mercy is the only option.
Regarding equity market nothing has changed in last 30 - 40 days but effect of the clamity on the performance of companies will be known in next two quarters hopefully.
Now as an investor should not panic but we have to check the valuation & prospect of the individual stock and invest gradually for good returns over period of 1-2year.
We all know that in any situation basic necessities are always required by us hence such goods production will have to continue in the worst case also.
Lets all pray for god s mercy ...
Community User Wait and watch is the good strategy. The market is expected to reduce another 2000-3000 points and slowly one can start accumulating depending on the intuition one has.
> Custom duty to be reduced on imported footwear and furniture to boost domestic manufacturing
> Deduction of Rs. 1,50,000 on loan sanction and tax holiday on profits of developers involved in affordable housing projects to be extended by one year to FY21 – positive for real estate players having exposure to affordable segment
> G-Sec ETF to be floated to promote retail participation in debt markets.
> FPI limit in Corporate Bond Market has been increased from 9% to 15% of the total outstanding.
> Dividend distribution tax abolished, positive for IT companies which have higher dividend payout
>Deposit insurance guarantee increased from Rs. 1 lakh to Rs. 5 lakh. Boost to bank deposit as it raises confidence, though cost could go up marginally for banks
> Focus on digital technologies and e-governance, positive for IT companies
> Implementation of prepaid smart meters in three years and freedom to choose power supplier will lay the ground to bring competition in the power sector. Positive for private power discom companies, smart Meter manufacturing companies, power generation companies
> 2. Rs. 3150 crore set aside for Ministry of Culture to develop 5 new archaeological sites with on-site museum, renovation of other museum among others – positive for tourism
> Rs. 2500 set up for promoting tourism at the state level
> 148km Bengaluru sub-urban transport projects worth 18000 crore, Rs. 1.76 lac crore for transport infrastructure, 100 more airports by 2024. Positive for infrastructure EPC, infrastructure developers and capital goods companies
> 12 lots of highway bundles of ~ 6000 km including Delhi-Mumbai expressways by 2020, 4 station development projects and proposal for 150 private trains is under way
> Setting of large solar power capacity alongside the rail track on land owned by railways. Aim to achieve electrification of 2700 km of track. Rs 22000 crore allocation for power and renewable sector. Positive for solar EPC companies/ Solar generation companies
> Allocation of Rs. 1.7 lakh crore to be provided for transport infrastructure in 2021 – positive for construction companies
>Budget proposes to expand National Gas Grid from 16200 km currently to 27000 km
> Rs. 1480 crore to be allocated towards setting up a National Textiles Technical Mission
> National Logistics Policy to be launched soon that would provide single window e-clearence for transporters. Would provide for scaling up of existing logistics operations. Positive for surface and air logistics players
>2,500 km expressways, 9,000 km economic corridors, 2,000 km coastal roads and 2,000 km strategic highways proposed to be constructed – positive for road based EPC players
>12 lots of highway bundle projects (total 6,000 km) proposed to be monetized before 2024 – positive of companies with BOT assets
> 100 new airports to be developed by 2024 to provide further support to UDAN scheme – Positive for aviation and tourism
>Eradication of Brucella and PPR diseases among cattle by 2025. Beneficial for Animal Health companies
>Viability gap funding (VGF) for setting up hospitals in 112 districts (not having Ayushman scheme empanelled hospitals) by using proceeds from tax on medical devises. Beneficial for hospitals
>Proposal for setting up of medical colleges in existing district hospitals with the help of private hospitals under PPP mode with Viability Gap Funding (VGF). Beneficial for private hospitals
>Government to allow viability gap funding to setup advanced warehouses. Positive for players providing agricultural warehousing
> Rs 99300 cr allocated for education sector for FY21. New education policy to be announced soon
> Allocation of Rs 3.60 Lakh crore and Rs 12300 crore for Jal Jeevan mission and swachh Bharat mission respectively to benefit FMCG, piping industries.
> Rs 3.6 lakh crore allocated for Jal Jivan Mission – Positive for Water EPC players
> Rs. 11,500 crore capital outlay provided for Jal Jivan Mission during 2020-21 – positive for EPC and construction companies
> Agriculture credit target increased 25% YoY from Rs. 12 lakh crore to Rs. 15 lakh crore.
> Govt looking to change existing regime that promotes excessive use of chemical fertilisers – Negative for Urea manufacturers
> PM Kusum scheme expanded for 20 lacs farmers for solar pumps – Beneficiaries KSB pump
ICICIdirect Research Budget Preview - 2020-21:
The government is likely to bite the bullet of a fiscal slippage (I-direct estimate of fiscal deficit at 3.8% for FY20E) as we believe resurrecting growth will be the key prerogative. It has already embarked on a number of reforms over the last few months like creation of Alternative Investments Fund (AIF) for completion of stalled real estate projects, reduction in GST rates, including big corporate tax rate cuts. However, the benefits of the above measures will see their fruition with a lag. Hence, the current need of the hour is to spur consumption, accelerate the investment cycle and employment as GDP for FY20E has slowed down to sub 5.0%. Hence, in our view, a slide in the fiscal deficit path would be a welcome step at this juncture provided it spurs consumption and revives employment and economic growth. The key areas of the Budget to watch would be how the government initiates policy measures that would boost local manufacturing as well as support job creation.
On the infra side, we anticipate the government will step up the capital expenditure allocation at 11% YoY to | 3.8 lakh crore in the Budget despite fiscal constraint. Higher allocation would be on the back of the government s renewed focused on infrastructure as the Finance Ministry recently unveiled a | 102 lakh crore infrastructure investment pipeline over the next five years to revive GDP growth.
To boost manufacturing as part of the Make In India campaign, the government is expected to address the issue of inverted duty structure and rejig of custom duties on electronic products in Budget 2020-21. Further, the government may also look into non-tariff routes to restrict import of consumer durable segment like television sets, AC and mobile components, which would boost domestic manufacturing.
As India is blessed with a rich demographic dividend, we expect Budget 2020-21 to lay strong emphasis on job creation, through skill development and calibrated investments (given the strain on the fiscal front). We have identified apparels, leather & footwear, textiles and food processing as sectors that possess relatively higher job creation potential vs. investment incurred.
To fund this expenditure, the reliance on non-tax revenues like dividend income from financial institutions and RBI, spectrum revenue along with disinvestments would continue to remain higher for FY21IE. Also, we expect the government to restrict the subsidy burden to 1.4% of GDP in FY21IE against 1.6% reported in FY19RE. We also expect the government to revise the fiscal deficit target as per FRBM for FY21E from 3.0% to 3.5%, which would provide incremental room of | 113000 crore to kick-start the growth cycle.
For details, visit the below link:
Community User First stimulate buying mentality in all Rural and Metro population through Personal Income rate cuts, after six months when buying through festival season continues in Jan 20 and Feb 20 also, reduce Corporate Tax as was done now. This should have been the ploy after collecting all Advance taxes in September and December. Every thing done by our Central Government has a wrong timing to it. If Crude price keep moving up due to fall in reserves during winter, inflation will start going up again after some years of soft inflation, Fiscal Deficit will widen, Rupee will get deflated again, a poor scenario that i dread to witness. More negativity in Jan 2020 will pull the sesex an Nifty to earlier levels and in a sharper spiral downwards in March 2020.
Community User With current Corporate Tax reduction announced in Mid-September, Advance Tax collection itself will fall by a minimum of 10 to 15% atleast or even deeper.
Community User It is far more complex and many factors have gone into the current slowdown. Corporate tax reforms can only be seen as one of the desperate measures taken in hope of inducing a quick revival. But there is much more that has gone into the current scenario which has seen lot of companies downsizing and many closing down resulting to lot of job loss and worry. Some of the main causes are related to corruption, mismanagement, global warming, lack of infrastructure, security etc
Community User And adding to the woes of single digit growth of Net Profit and Margins in fast moving consumer goods, Government expects corporates to get loans add capacity or diversify and sell the goods at super discounts to generate public interest?
Community User it will definitively improve corporate earnings but we have to give some time..let first GST slab stabilized..for companies
Community User Though I like the government s achievement in other areas, I am not a fan of this new FM. Our slump is due to sluggish demand. The medicine should have been to use the Aadhar mechanism to directly send 1.44 lakh crore to the rural and urban poor and tax cuts to the lower middle class & middle class. This would have ensured that 100% of that money gets back into the economy as demand. What has happened now instead is that the corporates are sitting on the bonanza and looking at stagnant inventories, they are less likely to invest to create production capacity and employment. I have searched for a rationale but nothing explains this crazy move. I discuss in detail at: https://youtu.be/zpu1RQ_dxP4
Community User This tax cut will have long term impact, by increasing the investment and inviting foreign equity and investment flow in addition to investment by Indian enterpreneurs. With the reduction in tax compliance will improve and hence more revenue to Govt. which inturn will be used for capital expenditure including on infrastructure sector. Our income tax rates will be in the same range as some of the east asian countries and there by making India as an attractive invesment destination.
Community User Will not streamlining subsidies, stoking demand by putting more money in the hands of consumers who raise or lower demand for goods, say by reduction of personal income tax or abolition of lower slabs help stoke demand, rekindle the animal spirits and or park their excess funds into privatisation of PSUs and also add fire to equity markets surge to get better return for government s holdings above 50% in all Navratnas.
Community User synchronise tax laws with company, commercial laws etc. only one interpretation across all laws. reduce paper work by requiring same data loading only once across all laws. Most importantly, respect businessmen and entrepreneurship how so ever small. Even the smallest business person reduces requirement of a direct job by atleast one.
Community User See after todays FM brief and measures announced will act as boosters.But the automotive industry as a whole is going through lot of changes 1.BSVI 2020 2.EV 3.Financing of Vehicles 4.CABS
A general slow down in growth due to more players than needed.And a lot of types mobility options for users.
All these problems need to be addressed fundamentally by them.
Community User With new initiatives from Government the sale should start picking now will a lull during sharadhs but Navratris the sale will be buoyant.
Community User Yes the slow down will be a prolonged one as there are so many lose ends to be tied. Due to the pressure created by global warming the push towards EVs are much more intense but that transformation is not going to happen over night. Nobody actually is sure what is going to emerge in couple of years and so the demand is less likely to pick up which will further have a negative impact.
Community User See, many factors are contributing to this Year s Market Slow down in Auto Industry.
1. Fundamental roots lies into the strong and bold decision of Modi 1.0 Term - Demonetization - which in turn channelized a sentiment of Low Liquidity or Cash buy in the market. - Strongly it hit the auto industry - low cost luxury items such as cars & high cost commodities such as trucks & buses.
(Ps: I respect the decision - There are always some natural drawbacks of some bold decisions or policies but it was taken in the interest of Nation s growth. I admire the Govt. for that)
2. Technological Reforms:
i. BS VI Migration - Mainly the changes are related to Engines. None of the Indian OEMs has managed to build a in-house BS-VI Engine so far particularly in CV segment. A lot of pre-buy is expected in Q3 & Q4 as the rates will be at least 10% extra due to the imported technologies. On the other hand, Govt. aids are being very slow in this segment, thus OEMs have build an implied uncertainty in the entire supply chain. I m restricting my-self commenting where it might lead to - all depends upon Govt. policies and their extension.
ii. Commercial Bus Segment- With the recent development in Railways; metro lines & Air transit facilities; naturally the bus segment has a negative slope of 3% over last three years.
3. Vehicle Scrap Policy - to boost the market, Govt. is likely to introduce vehicle scrap policy. This would ensure the TIV to increase by 15 - 20 % in Auto segment. Market Giants and waiting for it s official anointment. Govt. has made a remark that infrastructural development for vehicle scrap are under progress. Soon the policy will be in place.
That s form my side for now. Keep Hopes the market will get back to the track very soon.
Community User There is hardly any clarity and much to be understood. There are no immediate signs of recovery with no simple answers ..... will be a long drawn process say a couple of years at least with trade war, climate change, rapid melting rate of the glaciers adding to the woes.
Community User There is a huge backlog of inventory running into crores to be cleared. The priority of the auto sector would be that and then followed by rebalancing of their product mix and a rethink on their competition. Hike in depreciation and ease in interest rate will help to some extent, but overall it will take 6 months for the sector to pick up.
Community User A slowdown in auto industry might be a blessing in disguise as it indirectly indicates availability of other modes of transportation to the citizens, including the improved public transportation system like Metros in large cities as well as car pooling through latest generation tech apps like Ola and Uber. This will help in bringing down the carbon emissions rates in India and helping improve the environment. I would like the government to create and improve better public transportation mechanisms in the country to reduce the use of cars by individuals as we find majorly one individual travelling per car for work. The government should also focus on encouraging electric cars and provide subsidies to boost their sales.
Community User I don t know about repo rate ,GDP or Fiscal deficit but I know one thing computers and 5g network will take away all our jobs.....This is beginning of the end...
Community User Hi Afzal,
The only permanent thing in this world is change but if it happens all of a sudden in a non organized way it hurts. With things going slow many are losing their jobs and many companies may not be able to survive this downturn. Even the manner in which e-rickshaws number is increasing on the road by the hour - is creating ruckus and jams. This abrupt change if it has to be for the good will have to be done in a systematic, controlled, efficient way otherwise things are going to be only getting more worse.
Community User Within next six months auto sector will be seen improving, do your investment at this stage and ready to reap the benefits after 03 yes horizon.do not go for purchasing individual share of auto sector,instead go with mutual funds
Community User Auto sector is in very serious trouble for the next few years. Firstly due to policies the present condition look unrecoverable. Over 300 dealerships have closed. Over 3.5 Lakh people have been thrown out of job. The OEM financial position is getting bad day by day. Further with the in coming of Electric Vehicle thousand and thousands of worker will become reduntant. Many of the tire 2 and tier 3 suppliers will be on the verge of shut down unless they invest very heavily now and get ready to meet the e-vehicle requirement. Government of the day must release it before it gets too late. Hence investment in Auto sector must be done after serious thought.
Community User This slowdown was in expected lines as two major factors were known to the industry and public: one inroduction Bharat VI requirement from Apr 2020 and the focus of shifting to EV over time. The industry failed to plan to anticipate the expected slowdown due to the customers postponement of purchase when the new emissions norms are just months away and their eagerness to see how the EV are faring in the market and what the policy changes r coming. But the industries rather than preparing for these changes probably expecting that the govt will again postpone the Bharath VI introduction went on to produce vehicles building up inventory.The misadventure of NBFCs in the past of in lending to the all and sundry to reap huge profit made those adventurous ones explode adding to the wait watch sentiments of the genuine customers. It will also gets over in by the turn of this fiscal year when Bharat VI complaint vehicle and fuel will be available, clarity on EV getting more clear, good NBFCs will benefits from the reduction in their cost of funding and with general reduction in the interest regime across the economy, the market will turn for better restoring the industry back to growth and that will continue at least for the next decade. Let the media not play negative on this subject rather educate the public the reason for this temporary slow down.
Community User Automobile Industry cannot pick up for thr following reasons.1) Middle class Have not benefited by the tax and their affordability to own a car has come down.2) Insurance costs have gone up and insurance Companies have no good reputation of settling the claims generally.3) Service cots by the automobile Industries have gone up by leaps and bounds and the greed to make easy money by the service providers by levying service charges without any checks and balances has affected the car buyers. 4) The toll charges are exorbitant and car buyers think hundred times before owning a car. the over all costs in maintaining a car have gone up and the status symbol of owning a car no more exists in the society. 5) The infrastructure in most of the cities has been unimaginably poor and driving a car is only a head ache and inviting trouble. The pleasure of owning a car and enjoying a good drive have been fast vanishing thanks poor infrastructure, heavy maintenance costs with ever increasing petrol and diesel prices and other incidentals 6) Availability of Uber and ola cabs has also discourages owning cars and having all sorts of avoidable headaches. No scope for auto industry in the immediate future.
Community User The slowdown is prolonged one because there is lot of turmoil in market due to changeover from BS4 to BS6 from April 20 & early introduction to E vehicles. Also Automobile companies have generated lot of manufacturing capacities in last 4-5 years with increase in number of manufactures like MG Motors , Kia etc. without really anticipating what will be forecast demands. This all has resulted in to current situation of slow down. One more important factor is younger generations ; who are potential buyers are avoiding buying of cars due to parking & traffic problems and also locking of substantial money in buying. They have better option like OLA , Uber now-a-days which they are going far rather than buying cars.
Community User It is world wide phenomenon due to slow down which hot accentated by Govt policy on BS-VI (which is right). Main reason for slow down is customers are not able to purchase vehicles in cash which was the practice earlier. I believe that it is all noise being created by Automobile sector for Govt incentives and quick money. Industry as such should work on innovation, scale and cost effiency and export market. Infact, Govt should go for disincentivise more vehicles per family on the road form healthy environment.
Community User Yes it is a prolonged one until and unless GOI comes out with clear infra facilities for EV
No short cut shops will help as automotive industry already lost big opportunities to export market without innovative product. There is a hidden opportunity in EV and it s respective infra creation without further delay. Who will help the cat
Community User The slowdown is going to be a long drawn one and the slump deeper. Why? There are many factors contributing to it.
1. Industry s own over enthusiasm to go for Bharat VI emission norms, while complying with Bharat IV was fiasco beyond our realms. So many vehicles lying in warehouse and dealership had to be taken back. More than a Half of these vehicles engines, exhaust were scrapped or sent to their South Asian, African subsidiaries at discounted prices. A VolksWagen type emission cheating scandal was due in a diesel engine crazy population. Had it happened, it would have been a fire sale of sorts in India.
2. The demonitization suckedout all black money in dealer-manufacturer nexus.
3. GST rate fixing was a hara-kiri of sorts with 28% for luxury cars being last nail in the coffin.
1. The GST rate rationalisation to an agreeable 10 or 12% taking so long to agree upon and implement.
2. Since the price of E- vehicle is high being clubbed to luxury car segment killed the interests of pioneers, peer leaders in this segment. Now that some sanity has prevailed, e-vehicles from India must be value for money proposition where Amararaja, Exide battery makers, Mahindra, Tata, Hyundai and Maruti e-car manufacturers must rule the roost in distant future.
Just like in telecom, steel and power consolidating and reducing costs, acquiring cutting edge technology should be the way forward for auto sector. Light at the end of the tunnel is bleak for Bharat VI norms while e-cars front poses many high risk initiatives for the BOSCH, ABB, SIEMENS of the world.
Community User God ,just give our govt sanity to help the troubled auto industry , by incentivising them by cutting GST , Scrappage policy ,reducing insurance cost ,etc otherwise slowdown will be prolonged , if Govt does not do much then slowdown will be prolonged.
Community User Unlike other situation the current situation is very discouraging with no signs of recovery, GOI need to step in on extended time for implementing BS- VI
Community User Time bound roadmap taking stock of emerging trends, current cash cows and legacy phase out should be done. Roadmap that can be revisited every three years for contextual adjustments must be mutually agreed to between the governments, auto manufacturers, distributors, fuel providers and consumers. Tax rates have to be rationalized to help promote industry evolution in the intended direction such as phase out petrol and diesel vehicles and facilitate market penetration for EVs.
Community User Looks like wider ripple is already felt due to much talked about recession at doostep. How will it be end qtr 2019 and complete 2020.
Community User it is going to worsen further for next 2-3 yr at least. Suzuki and MnM etc. are too late to adapt to latest tech trends in auto - hybrids / electrics . Even whatever they are going to bring up in next 6 months in this segment, it will be hard for them to sell due to mileage issues.
People are not buying petrol / diesel cars as they know their vehicle will be of no value after hybrids / electrics come in. All govt. can do here is sit with them and force the usage of hybrids/electrics as this industry one of major factors resulting in slowdown. But once we see new better vehicles, this industry will be soaring to new heights.
Community User considering the government focus on EV s and BS VI standard auto sector will move in next year but not a big relief.
Community User Capital market investors shell out 18% GST on their brokerage charges on both buy order and sell order. Already there is a big hole in our pockets due market crashing and 12 lakh crores of capital erosion and our Finance Manager laughing her way to the Govt Treasury is an even bigger irritant.
Community User The move to reduce GST from 12 to 5 percent for the e-vehicles is welcome and which would give more impetus from the promotion of this segment and to reduce the dependence of burning fossil fuel.
Community User Transportation create opportunities
Community User The government should seriously think of reducing GST rate further on automobiles by 5 % to support auto sector.
Also Government should bring Petrol/Diesel under GST preview .
Community User GST returns are very complicated . Even an educated person has to take help of CA . THIS is a big irritant and needs simplification
Community User Time to bring Real Estate, Fuel (Petrol & Diesel etc.) and liquor in the GST umbrella. These have huge variation in rates across states. Time to firmly go behind the theme of one nation one tax .
Community User In view of bringing home more foreign reserves , the target should be on export goods , especially Textiles
Community User Automobile, Real estate, Textiles Hotels and FMCG Sectors all require massive GST REDUC TIONS
Community User They are charging GST on health insurance which should be removed.
Community User They could reduce the rates on new property purchases.
Community User They should not charge the stamp duty at the same rate for the same property again and again.( at every purchase).Resale property Stamp duty ,should be lessthyen a new property .
Community User Entertainment should be charged lower tax slab to promote consumer spending.
Community User auto ,FMCG ,cement sector and service tax should be reduced to 12 %,also there are multi pal cess should also be abolished.
more over petrol/diesel should be brought under GST.
Community User Prior to GST, the service tax payable on all bank charges/brokerages was 12%. GST on bank charges & Brokerages should be reduced to 12%.
Community User SERVICE CHARGES SHOULD BE REDUCT FROM 18% TO 5%
Community User First of all I think the Govt. should do away with LTCG.
Community User Cement and steel as these are basic material for infrastructure development and if infra develops,our country will automatically develop.
Community User If Govt is able to maintain GST 5% to 12% in three steps like any developed nation like Swiss, Singapore where GST is 2.50% to 4% and no GST can be credited back in to the system / refunded or claimed . This will stop leakage. Still lot of unauthorised/fake GST reports are coming in the media.
Community User GST CAN BE REDUCED IN AUTO AND HOUSING SECTOR WHICH WILL ALSO KICK UP THE MUCH NEEDED MARKET SENTIMENT APART FROM BOOSTING THE ECONOMY.I TO PROMOTE THE DIGITAL INDIA INTITIATIVE AND TO REDUCE THE BLACK MARIKET ECONOMY. THE BANKING RELATED CHARGES TOO SHOULD BE REDUCED LIKE RTGS, IMPS AND NEFT SHOULD BE MADE FREE. NOW, IT IS FOLLOWED ONLY IN PAPER AND NOT IN REAL SPIRIT.